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Logic vs. Emotion

If after ten minutes at the poker table, you do not know who the patsy is,
you are the patsy.

~ OLD POKER PROVERB

 
 

Investing mixes enough art with science to require that our purchases be priced extremely low relative to their intrinsic value.  This strategy does two things: It reduces the likelihood of “negative surprises,” and it keeps our portfolio turnover low.  Being disciplined about the price we pay for a security provides our margin of safety.

Wall Street is an emotional place.  How else could you explain 10 or 20 percent daily swings in the prices of stocks?  Investors driven by emotion are the intellectual equivalent of a teenager afraid of acting differently than his classmates.  Whether they admit it or not, these investors - and they dominate the entire spectrum, from institutions to individuals - they have ceded a part of their decision making process to others.

Our approach often leads us to purchase when others are selling and to sell when others are purchasing.  Our best investments, the ones that in hindsight seem like free money, are often the ones that require the most emotionally difficult decisions.  To keep a rational outlook when the investing herd is panicking (or irrationally euphoric) is difficult - but extremely profitable.

 





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