If your social media feed or favorite cable news show is full of dire warnings for weeks about an impending economic crisis, that’s a pretty good clue that there is no impending economic crisis. Real financial calamities are almost always surprises, although most are followed by plenty of after-the-fact claims of “I told you so.” As I think about the real financial crises that have occurred in the almost 40 years I’ve been investing, I realize that none were discussed on television for weeks ahead of time. And the horrible things that are predicted for weeks on television seldom, if … Read More

The economic value of social order and peace is significant, and it seems we are seeing the reverse of that some areas of the U.S. In a recent press release, retail giant Target said that merchandise theft will likely rob shareholders of $500 million of earnings this year – bringing the two-year theft total to $2 billion. Walmart lost $3 billion to thieves in 2022. Total U.S. retail theft last year is estimated at more than $100 billion. This is not an old problem that has suddenly become a convenient excuse for big businesses to demonstrate some long-held animus toward … Read More

A company in California, Prime Roots, has a new product, Hickory Koji-Bacon, the main ingredients of which are koji culture, coconut oil and yeast. Call me old fashioned, but bacon is made from a slaughtered animal, usually a pig. “Vegetarian bacon” is an oxymoron. Somebody made up the phrase to accomplish a marketing goal. There is a new category of mutual funds, aimed at investors who want to be socially responsible with their money. These funds do the reverse of Prime Roots, selling people old fashioned pork bacon while calling it broccoli. One of the top performing ESG funds in … Read More

On Saturday, an expected 40,000 people will gather in an Omaha, Nebraska arena to attend the annual shareholders’ meeting for Berkshire Hathaway. The actual business meeting will last about 4 minutes, followed by hours of Q&A featuring the wit and wisdom of Berkshire’s 92-year-old Chairman, Warren Buffett. Over the decades, much of Buffett’s advice has predictably been about investing. But his common sense, unemotional, logic about the nature of human behavior – not his unmatched 70-year investment track record – is why he has become an icon. Buffett is a voracious reader, understanding that risk comes from a lack of … Read More

There is a reason they call it commencement. Now is when your work really commences. Don’t believe the people who tell you that college was the best time of your life. Maybe it was the most important, but it’s a sad person whose life peaks at 21. Focus. The cat who chases two squirrels doesn’t catch either of them. Decide what you want and what you are willing to give for it. Set a deadline. Create an action plan and write it all down. Making a bunch of money isn’t the best goal in the world, but it’s not the … Read More

Don’t assume that because someone is in a position of authority that they necessarily have outstanding decision-making or risk-assessment skills. In that sense, the Anheuser-Busch executive(s) responsible for the Bud Light trans campaign and the Tennessee House Republicans responsible for the petty, brief expulsion of two duly elected Democrats from their elected offices are all the same type of people. They all took a risk without any reasonable prospect of upside. They were “playing” business and political versions of Russian roulette, where the best possible outcome was that they would essentially “break even,” while the downside of failure would be … Read More

About the time I graduated from college and got my first job at which I didn’t sweat or risk actual physical injury, I promised that I would never be upset about paying taxes. If I paid taxes, it meant that I had income – and I was tired of being poor. What a naïve young’un I was. In celebration of the April 18 due date of your federal tax return, here are some statistics about who pays taxes, along with how much they earn and pay. In 2020 (the most recent year for which detailed figures are available), Americans filed … Read More

As someone who was told I could protect myself from being vaporized by a USSR nuclear attack by hiding under my elementary school desk, I’ve grown fairly immune to warnings of the imminent end of humanity. That’s why I easily dismissed a scholar’s recent warning that superhuman artificial intelligence would (not could) destroy all life on earth.  Then I saw how easily millions of people were fooled by a fake photo of Pope Francis appearing to wear a $6,000 Balenciaga puffer coat and realized it might not take superhuman intelligence to destroy humans. People are willingly doing it to themselves … Read More

If we’ve learned nothing else surrounding the failure of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) it is that there are a lot of people who know little-to-nothing about risk, including highly paid professionals who are supposed to know better. Instead, they have been lulled to sleep by 40 years of almost constantly declining interest rates. I don’t know if they assumed rates would never increase, could never increase, or if they thought they were smart enough to predict when rates would increase and mitigate their risk only then. Whatever the explanation, there are a lot of supposed experts who have been exposed. … Read More