David and Hallerin Hilton Hill discuss the possible medium-to-long term economic implications of our public policy decisions in the fight against COVID-19. (Hallerin Hilton Hill show, NewsTalk 98.7, March 24, 2020) Listen:

A crisis brings out the good in people. In some people, that is. In others, it brings out their worst – whether it is elected officials in Washington selling their personal hotel stocks before Congress destroys the hotel industry or someone trying to hack into your bank account. We recently had a client who was the target of a very sophisticated attempt at wire fraud – an attempt that included the perpetrator actually registering a domain name almost identical to that of an organization on which our client is a board member. Would-be criminals are using people’s natural good intentions and desire for … Read More

The coronavirus has taught us quite a bit in the past month, even if all of it isn’t true. We’ve learned about flattening the curve and social distancing. And although the primary purpose of Facebook is to propagate misinformation and feed narcissists’ egos, the social media platform can actually be used for good when some kids don’t have ready replacements for their lost school lunches. I’ve learned quite a bit about people. After my third email message within about 10 days to our clients, one of them texted me, telling me that my communiques were appreciated, but a waste of … Read More

In the wake of continued stock market mayhem, some observations seem appropriate. In the four weeks following February 12, the U.S. stock market declined 17 percent, while the price of gold increased seven percent. If you own gold, congratulations. Gold has finally recovered to where it was in August 2011. The U.S. stock market is up more than 100 percent since then, even after recent declines. If the price of gold eventually sets a new high ($1,895 per ounce), I’m still not sure what good it does gold hoarders. You could sell an ounce of gold and buy 2,200 rolls … Read More

In the last seven days of February, the S&P 500 declined 13 percent, culminating in the worst weekly performance for the U.S. stock market since 2008. The Coronavirus Correction shaved $3.1 trillion of market value off the U.S. stock market and another $2 trillion outside the U.S. As horrible as that sounds, stock prices are about back to where they were in October 2019 – only four months ago. A 4,000-point decline in the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) can make for a scary headline, but a 13 percent drop is just not catastrophic, especially on the heels of a … Read More

The President has just released his Fiscal Year 2021 budget proposal. Since every budget proposal from every president is usually proclaimed “dead on arrival” by the opposition party, the question is “why?” and he answer is “because he has to.” The president is mandated by law to produce a budget annually but there is no law mandating that congress must pass one. In fact, it is increasingly rare that a budget is ever passed. Rather hundreds of employees at the Office of Management and Budget must waste their time preparing the president’s proposal. Then, my former colleagues at the Congressional … Read More

In a November 2018 speech, the CEO of one of America’s largest companies predicted the demise of Amazon. “I predict one day Amazon will fail. Amazon will go bankrupt.” The speaker was not some uneducated simpleton. He is/was the CEO of an international behemoth with 800,000 employees and a market value of more than a trillion dollars. Who said that Amazon would go bankrupt? Amazon founder and CEO Jeff Bezos. Critics of big business argue that it is impossible for small companies to compete against behemoths like Walmart and Amazon. In a sense, they are correct. A local general merchandise … Read More

We’ve always known that the U.S. and Chinese economies were interdependent and that a slowdown in one would likely affect the other. Trying to dissect China’s reported economic figures is mostly a waste of time, however, for one simple reason: the figures are fantasy. At best, Chinese officials guess at them. At worst, they intentionally lie about them. We shouldn’t be shocked if the same thing is happening with respect to the impact of the coronavirus. The economic fallout from the coronavirus is more significant than a reported slowing of China’s GDP growth rate. The dozens of provinces that have … Read More