Category Archive

July 2026 Dear clients and fellow shareholders: After dipping into correction territory (a 10% decline) in the first quarter, the S&P 500 posted one of its strongest quarterly gains in years during the second quarter, bringing the index’s year-to-date return to 9.6%. The technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite experienced even more extreme volatility, falling as much as 15% earlier in the year, before rallying 30% in May alone. (The stocks in our equity portfolio increased approximately 4% in the first half of the year. Your equity return may differ due to legacy positions, liquidity needs/constraints, and/or rounding.) Inflation has been no less … Read More

January 2026 Dear clients and fellow shareholders: In case you have already forgotten, it is worth recalling that 2025 delivered no shortage of alarming headlines. At various points during the year—most notably in April—it appeared as though markets and geopolitics were unraveling simultaneously. As a reminder, here are just a few of the more concerning developments from the past year. U.S. equity market drawdown: Tariff-driven trade tensions triggered a sharp selloff in April, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite declining roughly 20% from their respective peaks. Market leaders such as NVIDIA and Apple fell more than 30% in just … Read More

October 10, 2025 It may be difficult to remember, but just six months ago the S&P 500 had dropped 19% from its early-year highs, the Nasdaq was down more than 25%, and investors were concerned that stock prices were entering a sustained free-fall. Since then, indexes have regained their losses and moved on to new all-time highs. The stocks in our equity portfolio increased 12.3% in the first 9 months of the year. Your equity return may differ from these figures due to legacy positions, liquidity needs/constraints, and/or rounding. This year’s market schizophrenia highlights (at least) three important points: Short-term … Read More

April 7, 2025 Dear clients and fellow shareholders: So much has happened in the first week of April that much of the data in our normal quarter-end letter is already outdated – and becoming more so every day. Although March 31 seems so long ago, the U.S. stock market experienced a modest correction in the first quarter – at least as measured by the broad market indices – with sharper pullbacks in the most overvalued stocks and sectors. (A correction is a 10% price decline. A bear market is a 20% drop.) After the acceleration of price declines in the … Read More

Dear clients and fellow shareholders: Few people saw this coming. Two years ago, most economists agreed that a U.S. recession seemed inevitable within twelve months. Yet here we are, two years later, and the economy has avoided contraction, inflation is subdued, profit margins are resilient, and investor confidence is resurgent. And following a 23% return in 2024, the S&P 500 has produced its best two-year return since 1998 – a year before the bursting of the Internet investment bubble. Equity valuations are undeniably elevated, with the S&P 500 currently trading at approximately 22.5x forward earnings. While this is slightly less … Read More

Dear clients and fellow shareholders: Few people saw this coming. Two years ago, most economists agreed that a U.S. recession seemed inevitable within twelve months. Yet here we are, two years later, and the economy has avoided contraction, inflation is subdued, profit margins are resilient, and investor confidence is resurgent. And following a 23% return in 2024, the S&P 500 has produced its best two-year return since 1998 – a year before the bursting of the Internet investment bubble. Equity valuations are undeniably elevated, with the S&P 500 currently trading at approximately 22.5x forward earnings. While this is slightly less … Read More