Gold promotes prey on fear

David MoonBlog

Whenever stock market volatility or economic uncertainty increases, you can count on investment promoters to prey on people’s fears and even stoke them. Gold salesmen are notorious for this, and the Trump tariff turmoil has provided the perfect opportunity to make an emotional appeal to separate people from their money.

“The global economy is in chaos. The national debt is skyrocketing. When it implodes, stocks and bonds will crash, but gold will hold its value. It has been a safe haven for thousands of years.”

I’m sure a bunch of lawyers approved that language before putting it in a commercial, but it’s hard to imagine how. Something is going to implode – after which stocks and bonds will crash? And to avoid this crash I need to buy some gold, especially since gold is trading at an all-time high? Does the classic principle of “buy low, sell high” simply not apply to gold?  Apparently, I’m supposed to buy high and sell higher?

Curiously, the loudest voices urging gold purchases are often those who are selling it.  And I don’t recall those promoters ever running commercials recommending investors sell their bullion – their message is always “buy,” no matter the market conditions.

So how has a buy-and-hold gold strategy worked out over the long term?

From 1980 until the beginning of this year the price of an ounce of gold increased from $512 to $2,622, essentially mirroring inflation. Does this mean that gold holds its value? Not exactly.

If we examine the price changes by decade, most of the increase in the price of gold occurred from 2000 to 2010, when the price jumped from $290 to $1,130, or almost 300 percent. That sounds pretty good, except when you realize this surge came after two decades of decline, during which gold prices fell from $512 to $290. Over those 30 years, the price of gold slightly more than doubled, producing a 114% return.

In comparison, the U.S. stock market increased about 1,000 percent during those same 30 years.

Since 1980, the price of gold has increased 550%, compared to a 5,125% increase in the S&P 500 and a 4,820% increase in the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

Owning some gold may make you feel better, but its long-term performance pales in comparison to stocks. This is true through both bear and bull markets, as well as during both economic expansion and recession. Overall, the historical data suggests that gold has not been a particularly strong tool for building wealth – unless, perhaps, you’re in the business of selling it.

David Moon is president of Moon Capital Management. A version of this piece originally appeared in the USA TODAY NETWORK.